Risk Profiles of the poorest countries in the light of the global economic slowdown
The FES has just published a paper on the threat of a new debt crisis among low-income countries.
Much of the debate on the global financial and economic crisis has focused on the advanced industrialized economies, although it is now increasingly recognized that developing countries are severely affected by the crisis. Quite contrary to the supposed decoupling of the growth dynamic in developing countries from the global economic cycle, developing countries are affected by the current crisis via several transmission channels, such as a decline in exports, falling commodity prices, reduction in remittances, currency depreciations, reduced or even reversed capital inflows and investment as well as reduced availability of credit.
Jürgen Kaiser, Irene Knoke and Hartmut Kowsky argue in this paper that the shortcomings in multilateral debt control and relief mechanisms are amplified by the financial crisis. Thus, a new round of debt crises among Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) is most likely to occur.
They also provide a detailed debt default risk assessment for HIPC countries which - among other indicators - takes the effects of climate change into account.
The 68-page paper contains individual country profiles for 24 countries in Africa and Central & South America.
The FES paper “Towards a Renewed Debt Crisis?” by Jürgen Kaiser, Irene Knoke and Hartmut Kowsky, DoG Occasional Paper N° 44, FES Berlin, June 2009, can be found here: http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/global/06444.pdf
All publications from the Dialogue on Globalization series can be found here: http://www.fes-globalization.org/